Aren't you glad you don't have to live with someone so ADHD?
I have a problem with several of the points he hangs this theory on, for example him saying Dumbledore is a phoenix. He uses the HBP funeral quote trying to prove it, that thee was a bright flash around DD's body and flames grew higher and higher, then DD flew away as a phoenix, but that conveniently forgets that Voldie later breaks into the white tomb to take the Elder Wand from DD's hands. How can he be both an interred body and a free phoenix? I could see linking DD's spirit to/as a phoenix, but that won't help this Carlin brother's logic-argument.
And - "Return, Great Avenger, with wings, from the water" could mean more like Aurelius is coming home with a bird (wings) in his pocket, than that he is actually a phoenix.
One thought it did inspire: Could Fawkes be the spirit of any particular relative of Dumbledore? Since Guy Fawkes was a male I have assumed Fawkes was also, but could Fawkes be Arianna - whom DD magically grasped whatever he could of her as she was dying, magically created her into a phoenix or bound her to one (Maybe Fawkes even agreed to it if he was already with DD, or maybe a conjured one since he's such a powerful wizard), and then Fawkes/Arianna would also be bound to DD in the process. That sort of magic would probably be dark and have a huge cost. (Or it could be his mom, his dad, similar scenario. A little on the order of the portraits' magic?)
The bright flash during the funeral being whoever it is finally set completely free. We hear Fawkes flying off when Harry is the headmaster's office after the events on the tower, but don't actually know what happened to Fawkes. He might have been hanging around somewhat nearby until set completely free at the funeral ceremony. The connection might not even be in space and time, so Fawkes doesn't need to be physically present.
'Just something to toy with.
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